Pardon me for getting all sentimental this week, but this column happens to be posting on the 25th anniversary of Northwestern’s 17-15 upset of Notre Dame as a 28-point underdog, a game that holds special meaning to me because … well, I was there.
With the season kicking off this weekend, albeit in highly unusual fashion, I’m reminded of that unique feeling of mystery and anticipation right before the first game. I had no idea on my four-hour drive from Cincinnati to South Bend that Friday I was about to witness history. Similarly, over the next four months, we are going to see all manner of results we never would have forecasted in a million years while poring over our Phil Steele or Athlon. It’s what the sport is all about.
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Take a deep breath, ponder the possibilities and smile. We could all use a few of those right now.
With a couple of weeks passing since the Big Ten’s decision to pause football in the fall, it appears to me that the negative impact could be far more reaching than I imagined it would be. It seems the only saving grace is that they acted on medical advice to protect student-athletes. While you can’t fault them for that, it seems like that message has almost been lost. There is dissent all over the place among programs, and a real chance of major recruiting and transfer impact. How do you see the Big Ten looking in three years compared to where they were pre-pandemic. — Mark P, Blackwood N.J.
“The only saving grace is that they acted on medical advice to protect student-athletes” feels like an apt motto for this whole bizarre situation. I keep thinking back to the infamous Michigan-Minnesota game in 2014 when Brady Hoke allowed clearly wobbly and concussed QB Shane Morris back in the game. People were rightfully furious by the medical negligence on the part of Michigan’s sideline. Six years later, the Big Ten basically took the exact opposite approach to a health and safety issue, erring on the side of caution despite the football implications, but this time people are furious that it did.
I get it, though. Central Arkansas and Austin Peay played a college football game last Saturday and six FBS conferences are about to kick off their seasons, leaving Big Ten fans furious that their own schools can’t play. The reality is, nobody can say with any certainly whether the conference made the wrong decision. But at the very least, it feels like they made an unnecessary decision to shut down when they did rather than pausing training camp for a few weeks and reevaluating. And we can all agree that, whatever the medical advice that convinced the league to shut down, the management and the messaging surrounding the whole thing has been a complete calamity.
The extent of the damage will depend in large part on whether the rest of college football actually pulls off this season successfully. If it goes off the rails in a few weeks, the Big Ten may end up looking smart for postponing. But if this ends up being a mostly normal season with a few virus-related cancellations and oddities, it may take a long time for the conference to stop being the butt of jokes. Whether the league comes back in November, January or whenever, I would not expect it to immediately return to its prior level of prestige as if nothing ever happened.
Most tangibly, though: This whole saga has exposed cracks within a previously stable conference that may take years to repair. The league’s failure to coalesce all the various constituents has resulted in a complete collapse in credibility and trust. Commissioner Kevin Warren did not hold that 11-3 vote of the presidents himself, but you never saw ADs and prominent coaches express anywhere near this level of dissent over even Jim Delany’s most unpopular decisions. You can’t make such an extraordinary announcement, and then have Nebraska’s president, numerous ADs and the most prominent coaches in the conference immediately go and undermine it. And it hasn’t stopped; the leaks on Tuesday about a possible mid-October start date that’s not even on the table were a clear attempt to keep ramping up the pressure on Warren, but it’s not accomplishing anything other than giving fans false hope and further fueling their outrage.
I honestly don’t know how the league begins repairing the damage. Coming up with a cohesive plan for the winter/spring would be a start, but what are the chances they can get everyone to even agree on that? Already we’ve got coaches pressuring Warren to start as early as Thanksgiving, ADs who realize January is more realistic and presidents who are busy right now opening their universities for the fall and probably haven’t even begun discussing it.
All I know is this soap opera isn’t ending anytime soon. The Big Ten might not be playing football this fall, but I have a feeling it will manage to stay in the news as frequently as the conferences that are.
Stewart, you and almost all of your fellow scribes went chalk with your 2020 final four predictions. Completely understandable. Care to provide your next four? And an off-the-wall dark horse contender? — Jon J., Aiken, S.C.
Let’s skip past the “next four” (which would be more usual suspects) straight to a full-on off-the-wall field. Because hey, between more high-profile opt-outs by the day, key players that may miss games due to quarantine protocols and just plain other weird stuff that may transpire in a season played in mostly empty stadiums, this could well be the year for some party-crashers to capitalize:
Oklahoma State. I dismissed the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago due to their offseason turmoil, but on paper, they could have a pretty stacked offense what with RB Chuba Hubbard, WRs Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner and WR Teven Jenkins. Just for kicks, Mike Gundy last month added Washington State transfer Tay Martin, who has 143 career receptions. If he can find somebody to block for these guys (one starting offensive lineman retired from football and another got dismissed last month), Oklahoma State could finally beat Oklahoma and emerge from the Big 12.
Florida. It’s sure darn hard to see anyone other than Alabama or Georgia winning the SEC, but the Gators may be next in line at this point given the ongoing defections at LSU. The key will be getting through the first four games of at Ole Miss, vs. South Carolina, at Texas A&M and LSU with no more than one loss. And then, of course, beating Georgia.
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Cincinnati. The Bearcats increasingly look like the team to beat in the AAC, what with Memphis last week losing star RB Kenneth Gainwell and UCF seeing 10 players opt out. Luke Fickell’s team won 11 games last season, its only losses to Ohio State and Memphis back-to-back at the end. QB Desmond Ridder is a proven veteran, DE Myjai Sanders is an emerging star and the secondary is stacked. More on how an AAC team makes the Playoff in a bit.
Clemson. Even my craziest scenario isn’t that crazy.
The Big Ten looks like no one is in charge, as Presidents/ADs/coaches can’t get on the same page. The SEC/ACC/Big 12 look like the Wizard of Oz, asking everyone to avoid looking behind the pesky numbers of COVID cases on their campuses and in their locker rooms. What’s going on with the Pac-12? Are they ready to just drop sports to see if anyone notices? — Joel G.
In polar opposite to the Big Ten, everyone in the Pac-12 was on board with postponement. You have not heard one iota of public dissent from anyone connected to the conference, perhaps because most people on the heavily-impacted-by-COVID West Coast had resigned themselves to the likelihood for some time. Take this comment from Stanford coach David Shaw a couple of weeks ago when Mike Greenberg asked him how his team took the news. “What I experienced from my (players) was gratitude,” he said. “Gratitude to our administration, gratitude toward our process, to say you made the decision not based on money … we made a decision based on the medical evidence we have right now.”
Now, an Ohio State or Nebraska fan reading that right now might say well, those eggheads never cared about football to begin with. I wouldn’t say that’s true of the players, but it’s no secret the affinity most Pac-12 fans have for college football is not nearly as rabid as it is at many Big Ten schools. There’s little-to-no political pressure to play like there is in many of those states. And the economies in the major cities most of these schools are located in — Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Seattle, Phoenix — are not going to be devastated by no fall football the way they might in State College, Lincoln, Iowa City and Ann Arbor.
But obviously, the Pac-12 going dark this fall is only going to exacerbate the visibility and exposure issues it has even during a normal season. I don’t believe it will affect recruiting all that much, seeing as high schools in the region aren’t playing either. It’s just a buzzkill for programs like Oregon, which has been building considerable momentum since its Rose Bowl win, or Arizona State, where Herm Edwards and Jayden Daniels had just started awakening a long-sleepy fan base.
But give oft-maligned commissioner Larry Scott credit. He and the conference have handled this crisis spectacularly compared with his counterparts in Chicago. Nobody was caught off guard. Everyone’s being looped in about spring plans. Also, Jon Wilner recently reported that the league is planning to take out a massive loan to help its schools deal with the loss in football revenue.
It frustrates me to no end seeing so many schools out there cutting sports teams and implementing layoffs knowing that money is going to come back and then some in the coming years as TV deals come up. The Pac-12 will likely see a 40-50 percent bump in TV revenue by 2025. It can survive this setback. But if the ACC, Big 12 and SEC play full seasons this fall, the league better have a plan ready to start playing in January before people forget UCLA and Cal still exist.
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Stewart: It would be great to see a column and chart that clearly explains how this season will affect players’ college football eligibility. As I look at our confusing state of NCAA rules I wonder if an incoming freshman may have two extra years of some eligibility? Will the four-game rule stand this year, meaning a player could still call this year a redshirt year? —David, Tallahassee, Fla.
I know rules are changing so quickly right now it can all seem very confusing, but the eligibility piece is about as clean and simple as it comes.
This season doesn’t count. Period. Come fall 2021, it will be like every player in the country was frozen in time for a year. Fourth-year juniors will still be fourth-year juniors. True freshmen will still be true freshmen, though that will get a bit complicated with another entire class of true freshmen arriving next year.
Therefore, there is no need for anyone to be mindful of playing only four games this season, or for anyone to redshirt, because there will be no effect on your eligibility whether you play two games or 12.
What are the chances an AAC team takes advantage of the void created by the Big Ten and Pac-12 and grabs the fourth Playoff spot? And if an AAC team won a Playoff game, how much would that change its perception? — Andrew S.
If an AAC team goes undefeated this year, the committee would have an awfully hard time excluding it.
In 2018, when UCF went undefeated for a second consecutive season, four Power 5 champs finished with zero or one losses, and Notre Dame went undefeated. This year, we already know there can’t be more than three undefeated or one-loss P5 champs. In 2018, the Knights were knocked because their only Power 5 nonconference opponent was a mediocre Pitt team. This year, UCF’s game against Georgia Tech gives it one more Power 5 nonconference matchup than any Power 5 team. And UCF that year was the only AAC team ranked in the committee’s final Top 25. Just due to fewer conferences playing, the AAC will likely have multiple Top 25 teams this season.
Now, it’s not hard to dream up a scenario where undefeated Cincinnati still gets left in the cold. Clemson is a 12-0 ACC champ. In. Oklahoma is a 10-1 Big 12 champ. In. Georgia, 9-1, beats 9-1 Alabama in the SEC championship game, avenging a previous loss to the Tide. The Dawgs get the third berth. Florida, 9-1, doesn’t reach the title game but its sole loss was to the Dawgs. Committee puts in both Georgia and Florida.
But in 2018, UCF also finished below an 11-2 Georgia team that lost in the SEC title game and a 10-2 Michigan team that lost its last game 62-39. If they pull that this year, I would never take the committee seriously again when it says either A) they value conference champions and B) they start from a blank slate every week. Because the only sense we’re going to have in 2020 whether a two-loss team in a Power 5 conference was “unequivocally” better than an undefeated team in a Group of 5 conference will come from events that occurred in 2019 and earlier.
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If I don’t think anyone should be playing football this fall, is it hypocritical to watch? — Tom D., Philadelphia
Good question. I’m going to say no. I don’t think anyone should stuff 75 hot dogs in their mouth in one sitting, but I still thoroughly enjoy watching Joey Chestnut do it.
Stewart: Week 1 is finally here! What player(s) should we most keep an eye out for this weekend, and which games are you most excited for? I’m excited to see if SMU has developed any defense to go with its explosive offense, as well as to see if Memphis can have a successful result in an underrated rivalry game against Arkansas State in Ryan Silverfield’s debut. — Drew V., Charlotte, N.C.
I wasn’t sure when I woke up Monday if we were going to be calling this Week 0 (because there are only nine games, none involving Power 5 teams) or Week 1 (as was originally scheduled). It looks like the consensus is Week 1. All I know is it’s going to be really confusing when the SEC kicks off in Week 4. And even more so when the Big Ten joins the fold in Week 13.
I don’t know that you’re going to learn much about SMU facing a Texas State team that hasn’t topped three wins since 2014. The more compelling AAC game for me is Arkansas State-Memphis. All offseason we just assumed Brady White and the Tigers would crank out another explosive offense under Silverfield. But that was before losing Gainwell, a 1,459-yard rusher and 610-yard receiver last season, on top of having to replace big-play receiver Antonio Gibson and another 2019 starter, Kedarian Jones. But they’ve still got Damonte Coxie, a 1,276-yard receiver last season and arguably the most established star playing in a game this weekend. It’s too bad Arkansas State doesn’t still have Omar Bayless, the nation’s leading receiver last season.
But the game I’m most looking forward to is BYU-Navy on Monday night. To me, that’s the first one that’s really going to feel like a “big” college football game, given the history of those two programs and their recent successes — BYU beat Tennessee and USC last season, and Navy won 11 games. Third-year Cougars QB Zach Wilson has had his moments when not hampered by injuries, and DT Krysis Tonga is an NFL prospect. I’d say Navy’s offense might look a lot different without standout QB Malcolm Perry, but really, does Navy’s offense ever look a lot different?
One fun tidbit I uncovered in reporting my story Tuesday about this year’s television schedule: That BYU-Navy matchup came together in less than 24 hours. Which leads me to ask for the 8,000th time: Why do schools insist on scheduling nonconference games 15 years in advance?
Stew, with so many players taking the year off, do you see any of these players not reaching their NFL potential? I’m thinking of Maurice Clarett and USC’s Mike Williams, who both seemed destined to be stars but of course didn’t. I don’t know if/how they stayed in shape during their year off, but it makes me wonder if any sure-bet players will underwhelm in the NFL. — Anand P., Danville, Calif.
For the younger readers: After starring as a freshman running back on Ohio State’s 2002 national title season, Clarett was suspended for his entire sophom*ore season. He sued the NFL over its rule requiring players to be three years out of high school and won at the district court level in early 2004. At that point Williams, coming off a standout sophom*ore season for the Trojans, declared for the draft himself. But then both got stuck in limbo for a year when the federal appeals court overturned the decision. Williams still went in the top 10 in 2005 to Detroit, but he only had one notable NFL season. Clarett, whose personal issues at the time have been well-documented, went in the third round to the Broncos but was cut during training camp.
That was a long time ago. Williams, according to reports at the time, remained enrolled at USC that fall, just hanging out. He entered the league overweight and out of shape and quickly flamed out with the Lions. It will be a much different story for the guys opting out in 2020 like Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons. Their agents will pay to send them to a premier training facility like EXOS in Phoenix. Or they’ll set them up with private trainers and coaches who have NFL clients. They’ll be as ready for the combine and pro days as they would have had they played this fall. But who’s to say whether one less season of game experience will affect how their careers ultimately play out.
How much more can the Big Ten screw this up? — Ryan S.
They could bring back Legends and Leaders.
(Photo: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
