For six consecutive years, at least one running back has been drafted in the first round. Will that streak continue in the 2021 NFL Draft?
If I had to guess right now, I would say no.
However, that doesn’t mean next year’s crop lacks talent, especially with several productive backs electing to return for another college football season. Clemson’s Travis Etienne, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard and Alabama’s Najee Harris surprised many with their decisions to spurn the 2020 NFL Draft for another year in college. All three earned a spot in my preseason top-five rankings, but it is an up-and-coming prospect who starts the season as RB1 for me.
(Note: heights and weights are what NFL teams have on file for each player and might differ from school rosters)
Advertisem*nt
1. *Journey Brown, Penn State (5-11, 218)
Best Trait: Balanced power
Though not quite the physical specimen as Saquon Barkley (who is?), Brown looks straight out of central casting with his rocked up, ready-made body type for the position. And not only does he look the part, but he plays as physical as he looks with the contact balance to be a human pinball, keeping his feet and staying afloat.
This run against Ohio State should have resulted in a tackle for loss. Instead, Brown brushes off multiple tackle attempts with his natural balance and ability to anticipate contact, powering his way through the teeth of the Buckeyes’ defense. Brown has elusive athleticism to make defenders miss, but his ability to absorb contact and maintain balance is what makes him a chore to finish off.
Must Improve: Consistent workload
With Miles Sanders off to the NFL, Brown was part of the committee backfield that Penn State utilized last season. He was officially credited with 10 starts and led the team with 129 carries in 2019, but Brown accounted for only 25 percent of the team’s total rush attempts, registering 12-plus carries in only five of 13 games.
Brown’s workload increased down the stretch last season, and it will be interesting to see if he can produce at the same rate (593 of his 890 rushing yards came in the final five games) over a full season. With a deep backfield and the mobility of quarterback Sean Clifford a key piece of the Nittany Lions’ offense, Brown might not be asked to produce 225-250 carries.
2020 Season/2021 NFL Draft Outlook
With 80 percent of his 2019 carries coming in the final six games, Brown thrived over the second half of last season and grabbed the attention of NFL scouts. He posted 100-plus rushing yards in four of the final five games, including a remarkable performance in the bowl game victory over Memphis, averaging 12.6 yards per rush (16 carries for 202 yards) and two scores.
Advertisem*nt
Brown has yet to reach 1,000 rushing yards in his collegiate career so listing him as my No. 1 draft-eligible running back might be premature. But I’m buying his stock low and expecting big things from him this season.
Penn State has been spoiled at running back in recent memory. Barkley was the first running back drafted in the 2018 NFL Draft, Sanders was the second back off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft and if he builds upon last season’s second half in 2020, Brown has all the talent to be one of the first runners drafted next April.
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (5-10, 212)
Best Trait: Dynamic speed cuts
For runners with at least 200 carries in a season, averaging over 5.0 yards per rush is a solid number. Averaging over 6.0 yards per carry with that type of workload is outstanding – only nine players achieved that feat in 2019 (and four of them were drafted in the top 100 picks this past April). And then there are the dynamic playmakers who averaged over 7.0 yards per carry with at least 200 carries – and Etienne (7.8 yards per rush) was the only player on that list in 2019. And that number actually declined from his sophom*ore season (8.1 average on 204 carries).
Etienne is very skilled at creating chunk plays due to his start-stop suddenness and strong acceleration to force missed tackles. His ability to make cuts at full speed is what allows him to separate from defenders, something the Ohio State defense witnessed in last year’s Fiesta Bowl.
On this third-down play, Etienne takes the option pitch wide where safety Jordan Fuller is in position to make the open-field stop. However, Etienne stops on a dime to force the overpursuit, and then his ability to immediately reach his top speed does the rest. He has made flashier plays, but this run stuck with me because this should have been a tackle for loss, resulting in a field goal attempt. But his dynamic start-stop ability (against a talented, assignment-sound defense) created the touchdown.
Must Improve: Situational versatility
Etienne has special skills with the ball in his hands, but he is a better athlete than proven any-down back right now. After only 17 combined catches his first two years, he recorded 37 grabs in 2019 as Clemson integrated him more into the passing game. Though he has improved on simple screens, Etienne requires more time to mature as a route runner and pass catcher. As a blocker, the effort is there, but he has been mostly unreliable in pass protection due to chaotic technique.
Advertisem*nt
There is no question that Etienne can be a big-play weapon in the NFL, but for coaches to trust him in any situation, he still has work to do.
2020 Season/2021 NFL Draft Outlook
Etienne was expected to be one of the first five running backs drafted last spring, likely somewhere in the top 60 picks. However, he surprised many by electing to return for his senior season, citing the opportunity to receive his degree and “leave a legacy” as his reasons. Etienne already has more rushing yards (4,038) than any other player in school history and his 56 career rushing scores is an ACC record.
Though he benefits from an abundance of talent around him, Etienne is a threat to take it the distance any time he touches the ball. His athletic lower half and immediate acceleration leave defenders diving at air, and he is well built for a speed back, showing the stride strength to blow through arm tackles. If he is able to improve his tempo as an inside runner and reliability as a pass catcher and pass protector, Etienne is the type of big-play weapon that could tempt a team in the top 40 draft picks.
3. *Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (6-0, 205)
Best Trait: Field acceleration
Although his vision can run hot and cold at times, Hubbard has the field acceleration that makes him a home run threat. With five carries of 60 yards or more last season, the former track star has fluid acceleration both into and through the hole along with a finishing gear to pull away from pursuit.
After a 75-yard touchdown to start the game versus Tulsa, Hubbard followed up with this 30-yard touchdown scamper a few plays later. He stays patient in the backfield and allows his blockers to do their job before seeing his opening and accelerating to daylight. Hubbard hits the gas into the hole and doesn’t allow an arm tackle to slow him down, picking up speed at the second level to out-leverage the defense. He looks like Nick Chubb on this run.
Must Improve: Ball security
Hubbard’s vision gets spotty at times and he isn’t a true power back, but his ball security is also an area that needs to be addressed. Over the past two seasons, he is averaging one fumble every 55.2 offensive touches, a well-below-average rate. Ironically, Hubbard didn’t lose any of his five fumbles last season, but that is more luck than anything else – he must improve his ball security for the next level.
2020 Season/2021 NFL Draft Outlook
A Canadian native, Hubbard had a remarkable 2019 campaign with an FBS-best 2,094 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. He thrived on chunk plays (15 runs of 30-plus yards) and eclipsed 100 yards rushing in 12 of 13 games, falling short only in a blowout win over McNeese State when he received only eight carries.
Advertisem*nt
There is no question that Hubbard benefits from the Oklahoma State offensive scheme, and scouts want to see improved vision, ball security and blocking in 2020. But his straight-line burst to clear lanes and create poor pursuit angles has NFL teams interested in his next-level services.
4. *Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (5-11, 190)
Best Trait: Pass-catching skills
Gainwell offers several intriguing traits for the next level such as his slippery athleticism to elude tacklers or his natural instincts to sort through all the moving parts. But his receiving skills are what stood out the most after a deep dive into his 2019 tape. Much more than just a screen target, Gainwell is often flexed outside in Memphis’ offense, creating issues for the defense.
Against Tulane last season, Gainwell finished with 104 yards rushing, but it was the plays he made as a receiver that jumped off the film. He posted 203 receiving yards on nine receptions and two scores, including this 68-yard catch and run. Initially lined up in the backfield, Gainwell is motioned to the outside (top of the screen) where he is matched up with a linebacker, who does a nice job staying attached 20 yards downfield. But Gainwell’s ball skills were the difference on this play – he turns his head and extends his hands to stab the football without breaking stride. His hand-eye coordination and body control help him not only make the grab but also keep his feet to create after the catch.
Must Improve: Body mass
Gainwell doesn’t lack toughness, and his natural momentum helps him run through arm tackles on tape. But tipping the scales in the 190-195-pound range, he doesn’t have an ideal body type for the type of punishment expected of an early-round draft pick at the position. Only a redshirt sophom*ore, Gainwell is still growing into his body and should be able to add 10 pounds of good weight without losing his slippery athleticism.
2020 Season/2021 NFL Draft Outlook
Recently, Memphis has been a factory for electric skill players, producing four draft picks (Antonio Gibson, Darrell Henderson, Tony Pollard and Anthony Miller) over the past three years. Up next in the pipeline is Gainwell, a high school quarterback who emerged as a do-everything threat last season, accounting for 2,069 yards of total offense with 1,459 yards rushing and 610 yards receiving.
Gainwell’s film gave me vibes of Devin Singletary, another recent running back out of the AAC. Like Singletary, Gainwell doesn’t have ideal size, and his 40-yard dash might not blow away anyone, but his versatility as a runner/receiver and creativity to string together moves are why he can be an asset in an NFL offense.
5. Najee Harris, Alabama (6-2, 232)
Best Trait: Determined physicality
For a player his size, Harris is expected to bring the boom when he carries the football, and his tape didn’t disappoint. He runs with power due to his core strength and attitude, keeping his feet pumping to drag defenders for extra yardage. He isn’t shy breaking out a stiff-arm to stifle opponents, using his length to keep would-be tacklers from landing clear shots. Harris also has agile feet for a big man, which allows him to change run lanes, but his physicality, especially in one-on-one situations, is what unlocks his success as a ball carrier.
Advertisem*nt
This touchdown against South Carolina definitely qualifies as a “wow” play. Harris leaks out of the backfield and Tagovailoa hits him in stride, giving him an outside runway. His core strength is evident on the first missed tackle, making a hard stop and shrugging off the would-be tackler. Harris does an outstanding job not allowing the SC defenders to knock him off his path, finishing with his determined physicality.
Must Improve: Decision-making
Most bigger backs struggle to stay graceful through tight spaces, often running into their own blockers in the process – and Harris is no exception. Though I think his 2019 film showed improved decision-making from the previous season, there were still plenty of examples of him struggling to locate or anticipate. Harris is at his best when he can make one cut and go instead of trying to maneuver from congested quarters, making improved decision-making paramount to his senior tape.
2020 Season/2021 NFL Draft Outlook
After sharing the backfield duties with Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs in 2018, Harris became the bell-cow back for the Tide last season, rushing for 1,224 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also proved to be a more than capable pass catcher as well, scoring on seven of his 27 receptions. Harris runs as physical as he looks and doesn’t allow soft or arm tackles to slow him down. He also has the agility to shake defenders, but his decision-making is often mistimed and he is clearly at his best with defined lanes where he can get rolling downhill.
Comparing him to previous “bigger” Alabama backs, Harris doesn’t quite have the same home run potential as Derrick Henry, but he is much more determined and versatile than Bo Scarbrough. Harris enters his senior season with a solid third-round draft grade.
Pre-season top-20 senior running backs:
1. Etienne
2. Harris
3. Trey Sermon, Ohio State (5-11, 220)
4. Kylin Hill, Mississippi State (5-10, 215)
5. Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (5-10, 218)
6. Chris Evans, Michigan (5-10, 212)
7. Larry Roundtree III, Missouri (5-11, 210)
8. Trey Ragas, Louisiana (5-10, 222)
9. Rakeem Boyd, Arkansas (6-0, 201)
10. Josh Johnson, Louisiana-Monroe (5-9, 220)
11. Deon Jackson, Duke (6-0, 215)
12. Michael Carter, North Carolina (5-9, 195)
13. Ty Chandler, Tennessee (5-10, 205)
14. Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma (5-11, 221)
15. Spencer Brown, UAB (5-11, 228)
16. John Lovett, Baylor (6-0, 212)
17. Jah-Maine Martin, North Carolina A&T (5-10, 210)
18. Demetric Felton, UCLA (5-9, 186)
19. Justin Henderson, Louisiana Tech (5-10, 218)
20. Asim Rose, Kentucky (6-0, 206)
Pre-season top-10 draft-eligible underclassmen running backs:
1. Brown
2. Hubbard
3. Gainwell
4. Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma (5-11, 215)
5. Keaontay Ingram, Texas (5-11, 233)
6. CJ Verdell, Oregon (5-9, 205)
7. Zamir White, Georgia (6-0, 215)
8. Jaret Patterson, Buffalo (5-9, 195)
9. Max Borghi, Washington State (5-10, 200)
10. Javian Hawkins, Louisville (5-9, 199)
(Photo of Journey Brown: Benjamin Solomon / Getty Images)
